Archive for the ‘Dow’ Category

Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up’

March 26, 2009

The rise in the stock market shows promise, but we at Peace and Freedom are looking for businesses to re-hire workers and for consumer spending to rebound before we hire a band and celebrate economic recovery….

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From Bloomberg

U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a “bear-market rally” and U.S. Treasury yields will “remain relatively low” as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners LLC’s Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work. Investors are “way too optimistic” about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said.

Read the rest:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=
20601087&sid=aCvWs8KIIsUo&refer=worldwide

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Stocks manage moderate gain after erratic session: weak demand for toxic assets

March 25, 2009

The Geithner plan is now on the market….and the demand for “toxic assets” was weak on day one…

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Wall Street has managed a moderate gain after an attack of nerves had investors giving back a big early advance and then barreling back into the market right before the close.

Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Trading was extremely erratic — the Dow Jones industrials rose as much as 203 points in early trading in response to upbeat economic data, then fell nearly 110 during the afternoon before closing up 90. Analysts said weak demand during an auction of government debt stirred up worries about how easily Washington will be able to raise money to fund its economic rescue program. The fear in the market is that the government might not be able to easily raise the hundreds of billions of dollars it needs.

The day shows how fragile Wall Street remains despite a two-week rally that saw the Dow regain more than 1,000 points. The market was pulled in different by opposing forces Wednesday that led to choppy trading — which may well be the pattern for stocks going forward.

Read the rest:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/St
ocks-manage-moderate-gain-apf-1
4746401.html

Related:
 Obama, Economy: So Much Uncertainty Spins Off More…. Uncertainty

Michelle Malkin:
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/0
3/25/wonderboy-strikes-again/

http://americanheartland.wordpress.c
om/2009/03/25/325-voices-from-t
he-heartland-a-business-perspective/

Government Struggling to Keep Up With Job Losses; “Stimulus” Too Late

March 8, 2009

The nation’s rapid job losses could be piling up too quickly for the government to keep up, the Washington Post reported.

From Fox News

With the unemployment rate jumping to 8.1 percent last month, the government is facing increasing pressure to take action.

But analysts warn that actions taken so far to stabilize the economy haven’t been enough.

The stimulus package was designed to “save or create” 3.5 million jobs, but the nation has already passed that with 4.4 million jobs having been lost.

“It’s premature to say we need another stimulus, but the economy is performing much worse than when [the law] was signed, and the odds are increasing that we’ll need a bigger policy response,” Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com told the Post. “What we’ve learned is policy has been a step behind this whole downturn. It’s important to get a step ahead.”

And others say the government hasn’t yet grappled with the scope of the problem.

“I think what it shows is neither the government nor many economists have a grasp yet of how bad the economy really is right now,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, told the Post. “We can’t get our arms around what’s going on.”

On Friday, the Labor Department reported the nation’s unemployment rate had bolted to 8.1 percent in February, the highest since late 1983, as cost-cutting employers slashed 651,000 jobs amid a deepening recession.

The net loss of 651,000 jobs came after even deeper payroll reductions in the prior two months, according to revised figures released Friday. The economy lost 681,000 jobs in December and another 655,000 in January.

The president wouldn’t say in an interview posted on The New York Times’ Web site Saturday whether the economy will be growing again by year’s end. He said that timing depends on several factors. Notable among them was his call for other countries to take actions to shore up their financial markets and coordinate those actions with the U.S.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Related:
Obama Doesn’t Understand What Many Americans Are Thinking

Global Economy Weakness Leading To Social Unrest

NYT Interviews Obama; No Economic Recovery This Year

 NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

Obama, Socialism, Fear, Lack of Confidence: Tanking Stocks, Skyrocketing Debt, Recovery Doomed This Year

March 7, 2009
This has the feel of a full scale assault on capitalism….

Some investors and pundits blame Obama for the market’s dismal performance. He inherited a mess, but his rhetoric isn’t helping.
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Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Stock Market

NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

Tom Petruno, Market Beat
Los Angeles Times
March 7, 2009
The stock market is supposed to be a bet on the future.

The market’s verdict so far this year: There is no future.

The continuing meltdown in share prices, the worst since the Great Depression, now has become Exhibit A in the political battle between the Obama administration and its harshest critics.

Conservative pundits including Rush Limbaugh and CNBC-TV’s Larry Kudlow assert that the president is waging war against capitalism itself, with his tax-hike proposals, social programs and banker-bashing rhetoric. That has sent disillusioned investors fleeing, they contend.

Well, something has. After diving 38% last year, share prices are down 24% just since Jan. 1, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 big-name issues.

Despite a slight uptick on Friday, stocks plummeted 7% this week alone.

An outside view of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall street. ...

The decline from the market’s peak in October 2007 now is 56.3% — the steepest drop since the plunge of 1938 to 1942, when no less than the future of democracy was at stake.

“I think everybody is afraid of Obama,” said Todd Leone, a veteran stock trader at Cowen & Co. in New York. “They’re afraid he’s a socialist.”

Yes, the S-word.

Others say the market is more upset with the administration’s failure to stabilize the ravaged banking system — a Herculean task that Wall Street had hoped would be the first major challenge the White House tackled.

“Every time Obama talks about something like healthcare, the market’s reaction is — ‘No, the banking crisis!’ ” said Jeffrey Schappe, investment chief at BB&T Asset Management in Raleigh, N.C.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner still hasn’t provided specifics on his plan to get rotting loans off the balance sheets of major banks, a step seen as crucial to jump-starting new lending.

For his part, the president this week advised investors to look beyond what he called “day-to-day gyrations” in share prices.

He then ventured into territory where few other presidents have gone. Perhaps taking a cue from fellow Democrat Warren E. Buffett, Obama offered an opinion on whether stocks were bargains.

“What you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal, if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it,” he said Tuesday.

He didn’t get the lingo right, assuming he meant to say “price-to-earnings ratios,” a measure of stock prices relative to earnings per share. That flub caused snickering among market pros.

Read the rest:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-
fi-petruno7-2009mar07,0,869176.column

Related:
 Can Democracy Fail With Obama’s Socialist Help?

George W. Obama?

Related:
 Venezuela’s Chavez Urges Obama, U.S. Down Socialist Path

Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Stock Market

NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

Obama’s First Weeks: Economic Disaster, Socialist Agenda,

Just Do It, Barack

March 7, 2009

At least President Obama knows the economy has problems. He’s spoken of a “financial crisis,” a “housing crisis,” a “credit crisis” – you name it.

So he earns points for recognizing the ills that plague us. Too bad he isn’t doing much about them.

Editorial
NY post

Sure, the administration’s housing program promises to keep more Americans in their homes – but it cannibalizes the troubled financial industry to do so.

It’s clear that TARP won’t solve the toxic-assets problem. Maybe Team Obama just prefers to let the financial sector remain one big Superfund site?

No strategy has emerged to bring financial regulations into the 21st century.

And the plan for recidivist beggars like AIG and General Motors is to throw more of your tax money at them.

All this as reports surface that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has yet to hire a single deputy – leaving Treasury virtually paralyzed during a major recession.

But instead of cleaning up the mess, Obama has wholly invested himself in a massive scheme to remake the Republic. In the name of “economic recovery,” he’s laboring to nationalize health care and education, and plowing megabillions into the flimsy promise of “green” energy.

Now, if the evaporation of trillions of dollars of wealth had been caused by a shortage of solar panels, or lack of a universal-health-care card, he might be right to do so.

So let’s be clear: His priorities are seriously misplaced – an observation that’s starting to get some traction.

Clearly that was the verdict yesterday from columnists Paul Krugman, Steve Forbes and Charles Krauthammer. When those three agree, it’s time to pay heed.

And pay attention Obama should.

One wake-up call came yesterday, as the government announced that more than 650,000 jobs disappeared in February – the first full month of the age of Obama.

And the Dow has made like an Acapulco cliff diver since Inauguration Day, plummeting more than 1,650 points – nearly 650 of them since the president unveiled the budget he says will solve everything.

This week, a share of Citigroup – worth $55 just 22 months ago – was a better fit for the McDonald’s Dollar Menu than the New York Stock Exchange.

The fact that no one’s buying up these deals means investors are weighing rock-bottom stock prices against the next few years’ economic prospects – and still aren’t convinced they can turn a profit.

Not exactly a stunning endorsement of Obama’s long-term plans for recovery.

Obama is famous for his discipline – and it’s time for him to show some.

Sure, the opportunity to turn America into Europe is appealing enough to put dollar signs in the eyes of any Democrat. But the president needs to ignore the distractions, and start making the fixes America’s economy really needs.

After all, Obama was one of the few Americans to get a new job in recent months. Those who hired him expect him to buckle down and do it.

Related:
Can Democracy Fail With Obama’s Socialist Help?

Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Stock Market

March 6, 2009

It’s hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president’s policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy, not just mitigate the recession and financial crisis.

By Michael Boskin
The Wall Street Journal
.
The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents — John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance — President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter’s higher taxes and Mr. Clinton’s draconian defense drawdown.

[Commentary]
Martin Kozlowski

Mr. Obama’s $3.6 trillion budget blueprint, by his own admission, redefines the role of government in our economy and society. The budget more than doubles the national debt held by the public, adding more to the debt than all previous presidents — from George Washington to George W. Bush — combined. It reduces defense spending to a level not sustained since the dangerous days before World War II, while increasing nondefense spending (relative to GDP) to the highest level in U.S. history. And it would raise taxes to historically high levels (again, relative to GDP). And all of this before addressing the impending explosion in Social Security and Medicare costs.

To be fair, specific parts of the president’s budget are admirable and deserve support: increased means-testing in agriculture and medical payments; permanent indexing of the alternative minimum tax and other tax reductions; recognizing the need for further financial rescue and likely losses thereon; and bringing spending into the budget that was previously in supplemental appropriations, such as funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The specific problems, however, far outweigh the positives. First are the quite optimistic forecasts, despite the higher taxes and government micromanagement that will harm the economy. The budget projects a much shallower recession and stronger recovery than private forecasters or the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are projecting. It implies a vast amount of additional spending and higher taxes, above and beyond even these record levels. For example, it calls for a down payment on universal health care, with the additional “resources” needed “TBD” (to be determined).

Mr. Obama has bravely said he will deal with the projected deficits in Medicare and Social Security. While reform of these programs is vital, the president has shown little interest in reining in the growth of real spending per beneficiary, and he has rejected increasing the retirement age. Instead, he’s proposed additional taxes on earnings above the current payroll tax cap of $106,800 — a bad policy that would raise marginal tax rates still further and barely dent the long-run deficit.

Increasing the top tax rates on earnings to 39.6% and on capital gains and dividends to 20% will reduce incentives for our most productive citizens and small businesses to work, save and invest — with effective rates higher still because of restrictions on itemized deductions and raising the Social Security cap. As every economics student learns, high marginal rates distort economic decisions, the damage from which rises with the square of the rates (doubling the rates quadruples the harm). The president claims he is only hitting 2% of the population, but many more will at some point be in these brackets.

As for energy policy, the president’s cap-and-trade plan for CO2 would ensnare a vast network of covered sources, opening up countless opportunities for political manipulation, bureaucracy, or worse. It would likely exacerbate volatility in energy prices, as permit prices soar in booms and collapse in busts. The European emissions trading system has been a dismal failure. A direct, transparent carbon tax would be far better.

Read the rest:
http://online.wsj.com/article
/SB123629969453946717.html

 

Related:
NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

Obama’s First Weeks: Economic Disaster, Socialist Agenda, Congressional Pork, Limbaugh Attacked, and “We Won”

Debt:
http://deadenders.wordpress.com/2009/0
3/07/cbs-show-us-how-its-done/


http://nobamablog.wordpress.com/2009/
03/06/deception-at-core-of-obama-plans/

NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

March 6, 2009

Another 651,000 jobs disappeared from the American economy in February, the government reported Friday, as the unemployment rate soared to 8.1 percent — its highest level since 1983.

By Peter Goodman and Jack Healy
The New York Times

The latest grim scorecard of contraction in the American workplace largely destroyed what hopes remained for an economic recovery in the first half of this year, and added to a growing sense that 2009 is probably a lost cause.

Most economists now assume that the American fortunes will not improve before near the end of the year, as the Obama administration’s $787 billion emergency spending program begins to wash through the economy.

“The current pace of decline is breathtaking,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist at the research and trading firm ITG. “We are now falling at a near record rate in the postwar period and there’s been no change in the violent downward trajectory.”

Indeed, the monthly snapshot of the national employment picture worsened an already abysmal picture….

Read the rest:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/07/b
usiness/economy/07jobs.html?_r=1&hp

 

Related:
Obama’s First Weeks: Economic Disaster, Socialist Agenda, Congressional Pork, Limbaugh Attacked, and “We Won”

Dow’s Decline Is Fastest for a New President in Nearly a Century

March 6, 2009

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen faster under President Obama than under any new president in at least 90 years, according to a review conducted by Bloomberg. 

Bloomberg reports that since Inauguration Day, the Dow has fallen 20 percent, leading at least one investor to dub this the “Obama bear market.” The Dow has also dropped 31 percent since Election Day. 

Despite a string of government bailout offers and Obama’s advice earlier this week that Americans should be buying stock while shares are low, the Dow has continued to freefall. 

Bloomberg reported that Obama is at risk of breaking a historical trend — in which the Dow soars an average of close to 10 percent in the first year after a Democrat wins the presidency. 

–Fox News

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By Eric Martin

March 6 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama now has the distinction of presiding over his own bear market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 20 percent since Inauguration Day, the fastest drop under a newly elected president in at least 90 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has lost 53 percent from its October 2007 record of 14,164.53, slipping 4.1 percent to 6,594.44 yesterday.

Read the rest:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206
01087&sid=a5o50mgg9hWA

Related:
NYT: After March 6 Economic News, “2009 is Probably a Lost Cause”

Geithner’s Top Two Treasury Assistants Withdraw; 17 Unfilled Top Jobs At U.S. Treasury

March 6, 2009

President Obama said that Timothy Geithner was “indispensible” in solving the nation’s economic crisis.  He was confirmed by the Senate as treasury Secretary despite his own personal tax irregularities.

His first outing as Treasury Secretary was panned by economic analysts and observers.

And now he can’t get anyone to join his team at Treasury.

Geither’s top two picks to fill senior treaury jobs have withdrawn their names from consideration and there are 17 unfilled and unnamed top jobs at Treasury.

Time to re-think Mr. Geithner?

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner appears before the Senate ... 
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner appears before the Senate Finance Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 4, 2009, to defend President Barack Obama’s fiscal 2010 federal budget. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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By John Poirier and David Lawder
Reuters
.
Two top contenders for senior posts at the U.S. Treasury have withdrawn, people familiar with the moves said on Thursday, dealing a blow to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s efforts to build his staff to fight the financial crisis.

Former Securities and Exchange Commissioner Annette Nazareth withdrew from consideration to become deputy Treasury secretary for personal reasons to remain in her private securities law practice, one of the sources said.

Caroline Atkinson, Geithner’s choice for international affairs undersecretary, also has withdrawn. Atkinson, a senior official at the International Monetary Fund, has decided to remain at the institution, a person familiar with the decision said.

Both Nazareth and Atkinson had been vetted for the jobs but were not formally nominated for U.S. Senate confirmation.

The withdrawals come as Geithner is trying to boost market confidence in the Obama administration’s ability to battle the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

He is working with a close circle of advisers and civil servants to craft new bailouts and flesh out details of an effort to purchase troubled assets from banks as financial stocks are back under attack.

Nazareth and Atkinson could not immediately be reached for comment.

Read the rest:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090
306/pl_nm/us_financial_treasury_deputy

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From The American Spectator:

“People think Wall Street and our economy are in a mess? They have nothing on what we’re going through here,” said a career Treasury Department official after learning yesterday that former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission member Annette Nazareth had withdrawn from consideration to serve as deputy Treasury secretary.

Senior White House officials were telling reporters on background last night that Nazareth withdrew from consideration because initial feedback from the Senate on her possible nomination was that she would endure a tough confirmation process due to her role at the SEC directing oversight of market regulation. But associates of Nazareth familiar with the situation say that there were other reasons for her to pull out. “She simply lost confidence in [Treasury Secretary Timothy] Geithner,” says a colleague of Nazareth’s at the law firm, Davis Polk & Wardwell. “There’s a lot of that going around, we hear.”

Read the rest:
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/
03/06/treasury-these-moments

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Related:
 Most Obama “Economic Advisors” Raised Money for Democrats

 Obama’s Economic Strategy Akin To LBJ’s Vietnam Fiasco: “Pour In More”
.
 Unemployment Highest Since 1983; Business Leaders Have No Confidence in Obama Economic Plan, Team

Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?

March 6, 2009

The stock market is crashing — slowly, and in plain view of the people who count on it most. The 53% plunge in the Dow Jones industrials since October 2007 has wrecked the college- and retirement-savings plans of millions of investors. It has permanently lowered the long-term investment projections of private endowments and pension funds. It has sent corporate compensation experts scrambling to figure out how to reward top employees. All told, more than $10 trillion of stock market wealth has vanished, and with it the confidence that springs from financial security.

By David Henry
Business Week
.
While 17 months may feel like an eternity, it could turn out merely to be a prequel. The questions on the minds of investors, money managers, and corporate executives are threefold: How much longer will the bear market last? How low will the averages go? And when might investors get their money back?

As Warren E. Buffett has said: “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” It’s especially difficult to predict the direction of the markets these days because the most popular gauges, from price-earnings ratios to measures of investor “capitulation,” have stopped working. The peculiar nature of this bear market limits the kit of useful tools to just a handful of bond market and business confidence indicators.

Those signals, along with interviews with financial historians, market strategists, and economists, point mostly to painful scenarios. Stocks don’t seem likely to fall much more from here — but market turmoil could continue for months or even years. Worse, by the time the market revisits its highs, so many years are likely to have passed that many older people will have gotten out of stocks, missing out on the rebound. The flip side is that new money put into the stock market now will likely do comparatively well over the long term. That’s welcome news for twentysomethings and executive compensation consultants, but perhaps not for soon-to-be retirees.

Read the rest:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/200
90306/bs_bw/0911b4123026586146

Related:
http://throwingstones.wordpress.com/2009/0
3/05/moderates-uneasy-with-obama-plan-ma
nu-raju-politicocom/